80% of Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Currently Underwater on Positions, According to On-Chain Analyst

More than 80% of short-term Bitcoin holders are currently losing money on their BTC positions, according to a popular on-chain analyst.

The pseudonymous on-chain sleuth known as Checkmate tells his 97,000 followers on the social media platform X that the short-term holder (STH) metric looks similar to charts in 2018, 2019 and mid-2021, all of which signaled investor panic and incoming bearish trends.

The analyst defines STH as entities that have held their coins for less than 155 days.

Source: Checkmate/X

But the analyst says this time could be different because while a huge number of short-term holders are in the red, their cost basis is not way below the current value of BTC.

“Just because a coin is held below its cost basis, it doesn’t tell us how bad it is. Being under by -1% is very different psychologically to being under by -20%. Despite 80% of STH coins being in loss, the magnitude of unrealized loss is just 4% of the market cap.”

Source: Checkmate/X

The trend also appears limited to short-term holders.

Overall, 81% of Bitcoin investors are making money at the current BTC price, according to the crypto analytics firm IntoTheBlock.

Bitcoin is trading at $60,438 at time of writing. The top-ranked crypto asset by market cap is up more than 3% in the past 24 hours.

Checkmate also estimates that the average price to mine Bitcoin is currently around $57,200, indicating that miners are still making profits at current levels.

“I can only imagine miners are white-knuckling the current environment, and barely profitable. For HODLers, this is largely irrelevant (and expected). For miners and shareholders… hope for a rally.”

Source: Checkmate/X

Generated Image: DALLE3

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