Trump’s odds on Polymarket surge above Harris, spike to 53%

Donald Trump retakes the lead against Kamala Harris on Polymarket, with odds spiking to 53%.

Former President Donald Trump has regained the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris for the upcoming elections in the United States on the prediction platform Polymarket.

Trump’s odds surged to 53%, surpassing Harris, who previously held the top spot with odds hitting 54% just days earlier. Despite the rise to 53%, Trump’s current chances are significantly lower than the 72% peak following the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Texas.

The latest spike in Trump’s odds follows recent criticisms around Harris’s cautious approach toward the crypto industry. At press time, Trump has a 53% chance of winning the 2024 presidential elections, ahead of Kamala Harris with a 46% chance.

Notably, Lookonchain called attention to an anonymous individual who registered on Polymarket on Aug. 19 and withdrew $205,000 in USD Coin (USDC) from Binance.

On #Polymarket, #Trump’s chances in the US Presidential Election rose to 53%, surpassing #Harris.

3 days ago, someone registered on #Polymarket and withdrew 205K $USDC from #Binance to buy 417,252 ‘Yes’ shares for #Trump in the election.

Now, this person has an unrealized… pic.twitter.com/GjAlGORjr7

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 22, 2024

This amount was used to purchase 417,252 “Yes” shares in favor of Trump winning the election. Following the increase in Trump’s odds, the bettor now holds an unrealized profit of $15,000. The GOP candidate now sees over $85 million in volume wagered on his potential victory, as opposed to Harris’s $77.5 million. Both candidates’ wagered volume has continued to increase on Polymarket.

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Harris attracts criticism

Recall that Harris’s initial lead was bolstered by increased attempts from her team to woo the crypto industry, especially with the Crypto4Harris campaign and a recent roundtable meeting.

However, recent developments have triggered questions about the Democrat’s willingness to improve the regulatory climate around crypto in the U.S. For instance, the Democratic National Committee’s 2024 platform notably excluded any direct mention of cryptocurrency, sparking concerns.

🚨NEW: The Dems have officially released their party platform on Day 1 of the DNC.

No mention of blockchain technology, Bitcoin, digital assets or anything related to #crypto. @WileyNickel, what say you?https://t.co/V4yA1hr5ob

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) August 19, 2024

In addition, the Kamala Harris campaign expressed intentions to back a 44.6% tax on capital gains, representing the highest rate recorded in U.S. history. This move further attracted criticisms from prominent crypto industry leaders.

Kamala Harris just announced her plan to raise the long term capital gains tax to 44.6%. If you own any stocks or crypto and vote for her you are an idiot.

Make sure to send this to everyone you know who owns stocks or crypto so you can say you warned them.

— Matt Wallace (@MattWallace888) August 20, 2024

Meanwhile, per Bloomberg, Harris’s aide Brian Nelson revealed that the Democratic candidate has promised to support measures that will help grow the crypto industry. In response, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson expressed skepticism.

No specific policy or proposal. Just talk. Will gary be fired? What legislation do you support? What executive actions will be issued? Why haven’t you changed the policy RIGHT NOW since you’re president.

I’m sorry there is ZERO trust. We need specific, tangible actions. https://t.co/iWG6Jq0Ggt

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) August 21, 2024

Harris has faced criticism for not more strongly advocating for the industry, especially as former President Donald Trump has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate. Trump’s platform includes promises to bar the creation of a CBDC, fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and even stop the government from dumping its Bitcoin holdings.

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